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Complicating your exercise much more is the fact that people are likely to maintain their cars longer nowadays than they used to. That is largely because quality has gone up, decreasing the frequency needed to buy a new automobile. I think this has much more to do with the declining share of GDP dedicated to auto purchases than any of the other factors you mentioned.
You can see the rise in imports from a lot less than 1% in the 1960s to about 2% of US GDP within the mid 2000s (till the great recession hit). The opposite attention-grabbing factor is that consumption of autos (as a fraction of the financial system) started a critical decline within the early 2000s. That’s going to complicate the analysis which I’ll take up again within the next put up.