Yesterday , I did a easy rough calculation about Basic Motors to attempt to get at how much manufacturing job loss one may attribute to international competition versus automation and productiveness increases. Numerous commenters objected that my assumptions had been too simplistic, notably in neglecting the domestic content in overseas autos and the importance of shifts in the supply chain over time.
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Complicating your exercise even more is the fact that individuals tend to preserve their vehicles longer these days than they used to. This is in large part as a result of high quality has gone up, reducing the frequency needed to purchase a brand new automobile. I believe this has far more to do with the declining share of GDP dedicated to auto purchases than any of the other factors you mentioned.